Renewable Energy Integration

A reliable power market model requires a robust view of future renewable generation. Renewables are now the backbone of Europe’s energy transition, and their expansion sets the tone for capacity mixes, price formation, and system flexibility needs. Long-term outlooks, such as those provided by ENTSO-E’s Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), explore different pathways that reflect varying levels of policy ambition, technology adoption, and system integration.

The figures below illustrate example trajectories for key renewable technologies in a trend-style scenario. These are not forecasts in themselves, but serve as visual references to show the scale of growth and structural shifts expected across technologies. The detailed assumptions and scenario-specific pathways are presented separately.

Solar Photovoltaics (PV)

PV is expected to deliver the largest single source of new generation over the coming decades.

Total PV Generation - Example Trend Scenario
Example: PV Generation Trend Scenario (2025–2050)

Wind Offshore

Offshore wind will play a central role in Europe’s decarbonization.

Offshore Wind Generation - Example Trend Scenario
Example: Offshore Wind Generation Trend Scenario (2025–2050)

Wind Onshore

Onshore wind remains an important contributor despite land-use and permitting challenges.

Onshore Wind Generation - Example Trend Scenario
Example: Onshore Wind Generation Trend Scenario (2025–2050)

Biomass

Biomass is expected to decline in importance over time due to sustainability constraints.

Biomass Generation - Example Trend Scenario
Example: Biomass Generation Trend Scenario (2025–2050)

Modeling Considerations

When using renewable inputs in a fundamental power market model, it is critical to go beyond installed capacity numbers. The model must reflect:

  • Load factors and generation profiles at an hourly level
  • Integration challenges such as curtailment and transmission bottlenecks
  • Flexibility requirements from storage, hydrogen, and demand-side response
  • Scenario differentiation, as explored in ENTSO-E’s TYNDP (e.g. Global Ambition, National Trends, Distributed Energy)

The charts above serve only as illustrative examples. Details around the latest available long term forecast pathways are provided on the Forecast Scenarios page.

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