Demand Forecasts

Demand forecasts are an essential component of any fundamental power market model, which includes forward-looking projections of electricity consumption. Rather than being a single annual figure, these forecasts are detailed hourly demand profiles that capture the rhythm of a country’s energy usage over years and decades.

Key Drivers of Electricity Demand

The trajectory of future demand is shaped by several major factors:

  • Macroeconomic activity: Economic growth, industrial output, and service-sector expansion all affect baseline consumption levels.
  • Electrification of transport and heating: The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps is expected to drive significant new load, particularly overnight (EV charging) and during winter months (heating).
  • Energy efficiency improvements: More efficient appliances, buildings, and industrial processes act as a counterbalance, slowing overall demand growth.
  • Policy and societal choices: National climate targets, building codes, and consumer adoption patterns add uncertainty to long-term outlooks.

Hourly Demand Shape

For power market modeling, it is essential to build a granular hourly load curve. This is done by:

  1. Analyzing historical demand patterns (weekdays vs weekends, seasonal variations).
  2. Adjusting for structural shifts:
    • EV charging increases overnight demand, flattening the curve.
    • Heat pumps add seasonal peaks in winter.
  3. Aggregating to gross demand at the transmission level, before subtracting embedded generation (e.g., rooftop PV). This ensures solar and distributed resources are accounted for properly on the supply side.

Example demand profile

Daily median profiles for demand in Germany
Figure: Germany Daily Median Demand Profiles (2025–2050)

This figure shows the median daily demand shape for Germany across years 2025 to 2050 (excluding embedded generation). Demand rises sharply in the morning, peaks late morning to midday, and gradually declines into the evening. Over time, the entire curve shifts upward, reflecting structural demand growth. The spread between the earliest (2025) and latest (2050) curves highlights the long-term electrification effect.

Demand forecast over the years
Figure: Germany Spot Demand Forecast (2025–2050)

This long-term view shows Germany’s spot electricity demand forecast in terawatt-hours (TWh). Seasonal cycles are clearly visible, with higher winter loads. The steady upward slope reflects increasing electrification and economic activity, with demand nearly doubling between 2025 and 2050. Short-term volatility is preserved in the forecast, emphasizing the importance of flexible supply and storage solutions.

The charts above serve only as illustrative examples. Details around the latest available long term forecast pathways are provided on the Forecast Scenarios page.

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